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Prediction for CME (2024-04-18T06:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-18T06:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30131/-1
CME Note: Faint filament eruption to the SE seen in all coronagraphs, but only a few frames of SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO COR2A due to faintness. The source is likely a faint filament eruption starting at 2024-04-18T05:45Z from AR 3638, only observed in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 as faint outflowing dark material, deflecting southeastward as it travels. Notably visibly weaker than previous eruptions from AR 3638 leading up to this one.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-21T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30133/1
Model Inputs:
2024-04-17T21:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-21.0, Lat.=-20.0, Speed=378.0, HalfAngle=28.0, Time21.5=2024-04-18T05:27Z
2024-04-18T02:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-25.0, Lat.=14.0, Speed=349.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2024-04-18T12:30Z
2024-04-18T06:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-16.0, Lat.=-36.0, Speed=438.0, HalfAngle=18.0, Time21.5=2024-04-18T14:31Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-04-21T14:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-21T08:00Z
Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-04-26T00:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240418_052700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 64.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-04-18T21:12Z

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